@Doug : 认知偏差会影响我们所有的决策，让我们做出与自身愿望相悖的决定。例如，很多人多年来一直想学习股票交易，却因为认知偏差而迟迟未行动，他们会用时间和金钱等借口推脱。 认知偏差让我们倾向于快速决策，而这些快速决策往往会让我们偏离既定目标。我们每天都会做出数千个微小的决定，这些决定都受到认知偏差的影响。 认知偏差源于潜意识，它像社交媒体的过滤机制一样筛选信息。大脑会过滤信息，潜意识处理大部分信息，并形成习惯性行为。潜意识处理的信息可能是理性的，也可能是不理性的。 确认偏差会让我们只关注支持自身信念的信息，而忽略挑战性信息。这种偏差在社会议题（如疫苗接种和政治观点）和股市投资中普遍存在。人们更害怕损失而不是享受赢利，这是一种认知偏差。害怕损失比渴望盈利更强烈，这会导致人们做出错误的投资决策。损失厌恶会导致人们在投资和教育方面做出错误的决策。人们会因为害怕损失而错过一些低风险高回报的机会。害怕在金钱决策上导致人们负债累累。过度关注盈利也可能是一种认知偏差。 过度自信会让我们认为自己比实际更聪明，这会导致人们忽略专家的建议，并盲目相信非专业人士的意见。高学历的人更容易上当受骗，因为他们过度自信。即使是专家也需要定期进行自我检查和现实检验。 锚定效应会影响我们的判断，让我们觉得打折商品很划算。现在偏见让我们更倾向于追求即时满足感，而不是为长远目标努力。
我们每天都在做决定，从琐碎的日常小事到关乎人生方向的重大抉择。然而，潜藏在我们思维深处的认知偏差，却常常让我们做出与自身愿望背道而驰的决定，阻碍我们实现真正的目标。
我经常遇到这样的情况：许多人多年来一直渴望学习股票交易，却因为各种原因迟迟未能付诸行动。他们会用“没时间”、“太贵”等借口搪塞自己，而这些借口背后，正是认知偏差在作祟。
认知偏差让我们习惯于快速决策，这些快速决策往往是基于直觉和情绪，而非理性分析。我们每天会做出数千个微小的决定，从选择穿什么衣服到决定吃什么午餐，这些决定都受到认知偏差的影响。
认知偏差的根源在于潜意识。 它像社交媒体的算法一样，过滤我们接收到的信息。大脑会自动筛选信息，潜意识则处理大部分信息，并形成习惯性行为模式。潜意识处理的信息，既可能是理性的，也可能是不理性的，这取决于我们过往的经验和思维模式。
以下几种常见的认知偏差，深刻地影响着我们的决策：
这些认知偏差并非不可克服。关键在于提高自我认知，积极挑战自身的思维模式，并养成理性思考的习惯。 学习识别这些偏差，并有意识地去克服它们，才能做出更明智的决定，最终实现我们的人生目标。 这需要我们保持开放的心态，积极寻求不同视角的信息，并进行深入的思考和研究，而不是仅仅依赖于直觉和情绪。 只有这样，我们才能摆脱认知偏差的束缚，做出真正符合自身利益的决定。
Talking Wealth Podcast: Stock Market Trading and Investing Education | Wealth Creation | Expert Share Market Analysis⋅20h ago
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00:42 认知偏差会阻碍我们实现真正渴望的目标。
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02:56 认知偏差让我们用时间和金钱等借口推脱，阻止我们做出正确的决定。
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05:32 认知偏差让我们快速决策，但这些快速决策可能导致我们偏离目标。
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06:49 我们每天都会做出数千个微小的决定，这些决定都受到认知偏差的影响。
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07:49 认知偏差源于潜意识，它像社交媒体的过滤机制一样筛选信息。
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08:46 大脑会过滤信息，潜意识处理大部分信息，并形成习惯性行为。
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10:03 潜意识处理的信息可能是理性的，也可能是不理性的。
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11:08 确认偏差会让我们只关注支持自身信念的信息，而忽略挑战性信息。
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13:15 确认偏差在社会议题中普遍存在，例如疫苗接种和政治观点等。
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15:10 确认偏差在股市投资中也普遍存在，例如认为股市是赌博。
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16:14 人们在政治选举中也容易受到确认偏差的影响。
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17:28 确认偏差会导致人们相信投资骗局。
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19:05 人们更害怕损失而不是享受赢利，这是一种认知偏差。
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20:15 害怕损失比渴望盈利更强烈，这会导致人们做出错误的投资决策。
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21:53 损失厌恶会导致人们在投资和教育方面做出错误的决策。
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23:41 人们会因为害怕损失而错过一些低风险高回报的机会。
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24:50 害怕在金钱决策上导致人们负债累累。
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25:54 过度关注盈利也可能是一种认知偏差。
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27:13 过度自信会让我们认为自己比实际更聪明。
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28:21 过度自信会导致人们忽略专家的建议，并盲目相信非专业人士的意见。
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29:27 过度自信会让人们不愿意学习和做研究。
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31:11 高学历的人更容易上当受骗，因为他们过度自信。
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32:19 即使是专家也需要定期进行自我检查和现实检验。
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33:18 锚定效应会影响我们的判断，让我们觉得打折商品很划算。
00:00
This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice. Enjoy. 语法解析
00:19
Hey everyone, welcome to Talking Wealth. I'm Doug, I'm the Chief Analyst here at Wealth Within. And today we're going to dive into something that affects every decision you make, often without you even realizing it. Now today we're going to talk about something that's known or called cognitive biases. And as you saw with the title, 语法解析
00:42
of this podcast, Why We Make Dumb Decisions, The Power of Cognitive Bias. I'd also put that into context of not just dumb decisions, but 语法解析
00:54
decisions that really do hold us back from what we really truly desire. And we see that all the time. And I know I've talked about this sort of thing, talking about what's holding you back. Why don't we make decisions? And I've talked about students or people who have inquired about our stock trading courses that we do for people around the world who want to learn how to trade the stock market. And pretty much every month, 语法解析
01:22
We get students enrol who started enquiring not just weeks ago. I'm talking about people that are enquiring years ago. Only last week we had somebody enrol. It was 10 years ago they first enquired about our course and I think it was about six, maybe eight months ago we had somebody that was over 15 years that they started enquiring 语法解析
01:46
inquiring about our course, but never did anything from that point. And they both, and not just those two, but what we find with people who make that decision and not pursue, what they actually, when you talk to them and I say, when you found the course, did you know this was the course for you? And intrinsically they did. They internally knew that this was the right course for them. Can I say that properly? This was the right course for them because 语法解析
02:16
But there was something holding them back, and it was their cognitive bias, whatever that is. And I'm going to talk a bit about that and why that holds us back from making the right decisions that we should be making to move us forward. They're not those dumb decisions that hold us back. Now, you can interchange the word dumb with a few other different words. Dumb is a four-letter word, but it doesn't mean… 语法解析
02:38
If you make a dumb decision, it doesn't mean you're not intelligent. It just means that you're using or your cognitive bias is holding you back from doing what you know that you should. And often, as you would have heard me say before, we use time and money as those big excuses. Our 语法解析
02:56
And it's an easy throwaway line that we can do that. Oh, yeah, I don't have the time. Yeah, busy, busy, family, work, family, work, family, work. And they're the decisions we often make. But we know that what is being offered to us, we should take up and we use that. Yeah, yeah, I'm busy at work or I'm flat out at work or, you know, when I finish, you know, when work calms down or when the family calms down, I will do X, Y or Z. But when do we get that? The other one is money. And we use money as an excuse as well as like, oh, 语法解析
03:26
geez, that's expensive. And that's where our cognitive biases come on in. So I'm giving you some examples that I see every single day that people use. For example, like I said, expensive. We see a lot of people who inquire about a course going, geez, your course is expensive. But when I ask them, expensive compared to what? They get stumped. And it really is a thing is they've got in their mind, 语法解析
03:59
They just throw in that cognitive bias and they're saying, well, it's expensive. When you ask them compared to what, ask them to think and actually verify or validate why. And they go, well, it's just expensive. And I go, yeah, but compared to what? Are you comparing an apple to an apple, like another course that delivers what our course does? Or are you just saying that you didn't think a course would be 语法解析
04:27
that price. The tuition fee would be that price. And quite often they'll just use the throwaway, yeah, I just thought a course to teach me how to trade the stock market would be cheaper than that. And then the next question is, well, how cheap do you think or how inexpensive do you think a course to teach you how to fund your lifestyle for the rest of your life would be? And you get some really 语法解析
04:52
And I will say dumb comments from that. Some people say 50 bucks, some people say 500 bucks and yet those same people spent four years at university and $30,000 to $100,000 in university fees just to get a job. 语法解析
05:07
And quite often we don't use our university degree in the job anyway. But that's a whole new conversation that we could have on that. But cognitive biases, this is what we're talking about today. Those sneaky little mental shortcut things that help us make quick decisions. And that's a really important point. It's quick decisions. Often when we go in and start thinking and doing things, 语法解析
05:32
you know the validation of should i do this or should i do that and it's one of those things where you can draw a line on the piece of paper in the middle sorry vertical line down the middle and you go pros for doing this and cons for not doing that and so when you do that and you start doing rational decision making based on doing proper research and thinking then you can come up with great decisions but these quick decisions that we do based on cognitive biases 语法解析
06:00
can completely lead us astray from what we actually want to achieve in life. But it could be something as simple as what we want to eat, how we want to invest, or who do we trust. It could be what are we going to do in the next hour. It could be all sorts of things, and our biases shape all of that because we're constantly making decisions as individuals. 语法解析
06:26
You're making micro decisions constantly all day long. And I can't remember the research around this, but it's in the thousands of decisions every single person makes every single day. It's like, do I tie up my left shoelace before I tie up my right one? Do I get a cup of coffee now or do I wait for later on? Do I have a biscuit with that? There's lots of decisions we make. 语法解析
06:49
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07:20
Why do we fall for some of these decisions? Why do we let them affect what we truly desire, what we truly want? How do they work? And most importantly, how do we stop them from running or ruining our lives? Because if you're sitting there listening to this, it's probable that you have made decisions, not now, but in the past, that you think about it later on and you go, oh, why did I do that? 语法解析
07:49
oh, why didn't I do this instead? This is the stuff we're talking about here. And I want you to imagine your brain. I mean, we have the conscious mind and the subconscious mind, and I've talked about that in other podcasts. And I won't go in too much into this, but your cognitive bias often comes from your, basically it comes from your subconscious. But imagine your brain is sort of like your social media feed, your Twitter, your Facebook, 语法解析
08:19
Instagram feeds, whatever they may be, because we're all sort of known to these sorts of social media feeds. But basically your brain filters what you see. Now, depending on what it is and the decisions you need to make is how your brain works. Obviously, what happens is there's something that's repetitive that we do, and I'll use an example of driving a car. 语法解析
08:46
When you first start doing it, your conscious mind is actually working overtime because you're making all these decisions. Do I put my foot on the accelerator? Do I turn the steering wheel? Do I put the indicator on? But after a while, all of that gets taken over by a subconscious mind because thinking in your conscious mind is very… 语法解析
09:06
energy intensive. It really tires you out and you tire your neurology out really, really quickly. So anything that's repetitive in nature, our subconscious takes over. So we're not tiring out that conscious mind. And it is anything you do, whether it's chopping an onion, whether it's brushing your teeth, driving a car, they're all things we do without really much thought. We pick the toothbrush up, but we don't think, oh, okay, no, I 语法解析
09:31
You need to brush the back, then the front, then up and then. You just don't think about it. And that's really how your brain actually works. 语法解析
09:37
But what we're doing in that is we're filtering everything that's coming through. So whether it's somebody walking towards us, whether it's a car driving beside us, whether it is a light switching on or something moving somewhere, we're always making or interpreting the data that's come to us and that information in our subconscious mind is handling the vast majority of all of that. Now, 语法解析
10:03
Often that could be very rational type of things, but it could also feel totally wrong. 语法解析
10:11
Not. So we can be very rational. For example, if let's say you were out on the street and you walk around the corner and there's a huge big lion on the loose. You're just going to not think about that too much. Your subconscious mind's going to go, let's get the you know what out of here. That's what's going to happen. And so that's really totally rational. But it could be something else that's not rational, but we're thinking about it as a rational thing. 语法解析
10:39
Now, confirmation bias, this is a real, real classic for leading us astray if we don't use it in the right way. And basically, cognitive bias enables us to make those, as we said, very quick decisions. Now, as part of that, we have different segments within all of that, like confirmation bias, which comes in that. And this one's pretty much… 语法解析
11:08
I see this every day. It's a real, real, real common one. It's when you only look for information that supports what you already believe and then you ignore anything that challenges it. And you only have to watch YouTube for a couple of minutes and there'll be a video coming up where it's somebody talking about, could be woke, could be about a politician, could be about Trump, could be about 语法解析
11:34
COVID vaccines, and you see this confirmation bias. It's a classic. You see it so, so, so often. And what you see is people are only looking for information that supports what they already believe. And so they ignore anything that challenges it. It's like there's an old saying that you can't argue with the fool, you know, because they're already, they don't need 语法解析
12:00
They don't want to look at the other side. And they also say to you, logic won't change the situation when you've got somebody in this confirmation bias. And there's an analogy where it says, basically, if you have two cups that are full, you can't put more water in either one of them. You have to empty one cup before you put more water in it. And people with this confirmation bias are a full cup. So they don't want to take more in, even though logic says, 语法解析
12:31
tells them, even science tells them that what they're believing is not true, but their confirmation bias won't let them look at that. And this is one of the challenges I've seen of society, especially over the last four or five years with the COVID pandemic. 语法解析
12:48
And then obviously we've seen lots of other things happening now. And obviously with Trump, there's a huge bias. Some people are just absolutely dynamo Trump supporters, others are completely the opposite, the woke thing, immigration. There's a whole range of debates going on today. And I'm not talking about taking sides here, red or blue, or pro-vax, not vax, whatever else. But you would have had those discussions before. 语法解析
13:15
Or you would have been involved in seeing some people having those discussions and people just completely shut off. And I've had some of those discussions with friends of mine and they say something about, I'll just use the COVID vaccine for something. And they've mentioned something and I said, so… 语法解析
13:37
Why do you believe that? And they go, because my doctor told me. I went, okay. So did you do any research? Did you look anywhere else? Or why did you do this? An interesting thing, I mean, obviously here in Australia, another one was the voice referendum. 语法解析
13:55
I had, that was also brought out a lot of confirmation biases and I had chats with people and I said, so have you looked into this? Have you read all the doc, all the information coming out from the pro side? And have you read all the information from the con side of it? And they went, no. And I said, well, then how do you make a rational decision? They're just making, they were just, and I had this conversation, I read all of that. I read both sides of 语法解析
14:22
Taking vaccines, not taking vaccines in COVID. I read both sides of the voice. Yes and the no's, basically. And then I make my decisions based on that because I like to do, I don't want to have that confirmation bias in my life. I want to look at something and go, okay, if I'm afraid to look at something that challenges what my thinking is or what my beliefs are, isn't that beneficial to me? 语法解析
14:48
And the answer has to be yes, because it opens your eyes to new ways of thinking. Now, you may settle on staying with the belief that you already had after your research. I'm not trying to convince you either way, but shouldn't you have that data and information in there so that you're not making decisions based on confirmation bias? A big one in the stock market is the stock market is gambling. 语法解析
15:10
That's a big one. And we come across it all the time. And if you're in the stock market, you know that's not true, but ever tried to argue with somebody that thinks the stock market is gambling? Ever tried to give them logic? No. 语法解析
15:23
Same, same. So what situations do you have in your life where you have confirmation bias? Are you prepared to be open? Are you prepared to look at, right now in Australia, we have a federal election coming and people are saying red or blue, button or El Benizi. Now, personally, this is not a political podcast. I don't think either of them deserve my vote for a lot of different reasons that I won't go into now. But your decision, I'm researching… 语法解析
15:51
who I should be voting for and looking at every single party and saying, okay, so who acts on what they're actually telling me? And I don't think our two major parties are giving us anything to tell us why we should vote for them. But what I know is going to be fact is a lot of people will vote red or blue based on confirmation bias because it's easy to 语法解析
16:14
They just don't have to think about it. If they've always voted Labor, they'll vote Labor. If they've always voted Liberal, they've voted Liberal. Now, I've voted for both parties multiple times in my life, so I'm not heavily red or heavily blue. That's just not me. I vote for who I think is the best choice for me and the society around me and the country that I live in. And that may not be red or blue. I'm just asking people or challenging you 语法解析
16:43
Maybe it's time you start thinking about getting more information and doing research. If, and I'll say if, if you believe you've had confirmation bias in the past, try it. You'll open a whole new world for yourself. But to me, there are other things that we see, like people that say their specific diet is the Holy Grail, it's paleo, it's this or whatever else. 语法解析
17:11
you know, and or ones where, you know, you see the ads and they go, hey, try this. Don't worry about the science. It does this for you. And people buy it. And I've had people do investments and they've come to me and they're trying to sell me on this investment and 语法解析
17:28
idea, plan, whatever it is. And I go, are you serious? And they're like, yeah. I said, well, it's a scam. What's this? And they go, oh, no. And trying to convince somebody that they haven't been scammed is seriously hard. Their confirmation bias is like deep rooted. And I've had literally thousands of people in the last three decades that I've had 语法解析
17:48
come to me with investment options or having bought into scams or invested into scams and will not listen any other way. And then you might see those same people weeks or months later and they don't talk about it anymore. But it's interesting how they get in that confirmation bias and then they make decisions or as we said, dumb decisions that hold us back. 语法解析
18:13
Hey, podcasters, you're here for a reason, to become a more confident and profitable trader. And you can achieve this because it's all about having the right knowledge. We have a course that will suit you and improve the profits you take from the market. Curious to learn more? Head over to Wealth Within and check out our trading courses. 语法解析
18:36
There's another part to cognitive bias and why we fear loss more than we love winning. And fear of loss motivates us much, much higher. Now, obviously at the moment, we're seeing a bit of this always doom and gloom around the stock market with this Trump fear, Trump with his tariffs melting the market down. Now, I don't personally believe our stock market's going to crash. It may, but I don't think it will because the signs aren't there for a crash. Now, yes, Trump 语法解析
19:05
making decisions has some, it creates volatility on the market and some indecisiveness on the market. But in general, I'm very much a theory of governments are sort of like the captain of the Titanic. You know the direction, they just change the speed of it or they just hold it back a little bit or they let it go faster. 语法解析
19:25
Either way, but the direction to me at the moment for the US and the Australian market is up. It might be a bit volatile, but again, that's probably a whole nother podcast again. But if you listen to our YouTube channel or watch our videos on our YouTube channel, which is WealthWithinTV.com, 语法解析
19:40
We talk about the stock market a lot and we show you charts and talk about it a lot. So if you haven't picked up our YouTube channel, it's great. It doesn't matter where you live in the world, you'll learn stuff and it'll help you. We now do a US stock market report every Thursday here in Australia, which is, and we release it Thursday night, which is Thursday morning in the US. 语法解析
20:01
Just type Wealth Within TV into YouTube and they'll come up. And if you're in Australia, obviously we do Monday and Tuesday release shows as well. And again, we're here to answer questions and help you really understand it. But 语法解析
20:15
This whole fear of losing is much more powerful than winning. That's why you see so many doom and gloom videos. Now, back in 2022, 2023, I don't know how many videos I saw saying the stock market was going to crash. Now, in hindsight, none of it, we didn't get a crash, did we, in 2022 or 2023? And I did videos saying the stock market wasn't going to crash and I had people with these cognitive bias using all sorts of colorful language telling me, 语法解析
20:43
that I wasn't right, that I was wrong, that this was going to happen because 语法解析
20:48
They feared losing more than winning, but they also used that confirmation bias because X said it and they didn't do their research. So somebody on a video said this is going to crash or somebody on Bloomberg said there was going to be a crash. So straight away, instead of doing your own research and understanding the stock market and getting that data in to make a better decision, they made dumb decisions and 语法解析
21:14
by exiting the stock market or doing what they did and missing out on things. But to me, it really is interesting when you look at people, we're much more concerned about losing $20 than making $20. 语法解析
21:28
And an interesting is, you know, obviously losing money is not nice, but there's an opportunity cost that we find a lot of people, especially when it comes around the stock market, there's this loss aversion. And again, it comes around either investing or investing in your own education. People say to me, well, geez, you know, if I've got $10,000, I'd rather invest it in the stock market than your course. 语法解析
21:53
And they're looking at it as if they're losing $10,000 by doing our course, but they're not. They're actually gaining high-quality education. They're getting a team of people to help them learn to trade the stock market really well for the rest of their life and make so much more money. But then they're looking at it going, well, I've spent that. Do you get my point? Once you spend it, they're thinking, I can't get that back. But if I put it into the stock market… 语法解析
22:21
and invested in some stocks then I'm gonna be it's still mine they're thinking 语法解析
22:25
The thing is, but you cannot put a value on education that's just going to kick butt every year for the rest of your life to help you make 10 times more money than what you would on your own or 100 times more money than you would have on your own. And it is interesting, they put money into the stock market when they're ill-informed and ill-educated only to find that they struggle and lose and not make money. So they got exactly what they were trying to avoid. They didn't want to lose, but they lost more because of this cognitive bias. And they're thinking around risk management 语法解析
22:54
and losing more than winning. And hopefully, I might be hitting a little button with some of you. And you're going, hmm, I might have done that at one stage. I mean, really, our brains are hardwired to avoid losses. It's always about risk as well. Like I said earlier, if you see a lion on the street, you're going to run. Then that's danger, danger, danger. So our brains are really hardwired to avoid losses. 语法解析
23:19
But we do that even when there's a real small risk and we see people that are using that cognitive bias to stop them doing what they know they should do, even though the risk is small. So you can give somebody saying, hey, look, upside potential, you can make 20%. Downside potential, you could lose 5% or 10%. And… 语法解析
23:41
They choose not to. And this is the interesting thing when you see people that, and sometimes I've said to Phil and Janine and some of the others here, I say, I wish I could just open up somebody's head, suck out some of this bad stuff, put some good stuff in and put the head back on again and get them to make better decisions for them because they're making dumb decisions on that fear of losing or fear of failure when they know that 语法解析
24:07
They should be doing it. And again, that's what I was talking about earlier with people not undertaking a course when they know they should have. And I don't know how many times I've had people standing in front of me saying, Dale, I knew the moment I saw your course, that was the course I needed to be doing. But that's a terrible word, isn't it? 语法解析
24:26
But it does, it shows up in all kinds of places and all places within our lives. And especially this whole fear around money decisions. We often make money decisions that hold us back or helps us lose more money than gain more money. That's why so many people, whether, it doesn't matter where you go around the world, the vast majority of people can't really survive for more than six weeks-ish. 语法解析
24:50
without an income coming in. And that is scary. And debt levels around the world is super, super high because we're making these money decisions based on fear. But knowledge is the enemy of fear. Surely it just makes sense to become more knowledgeable. And I'm not talking about just like talking about our course. I'm not mentioning that. But you can get knowledge in all sorts of places. You know, like my first book, you can get it for free. You know, how to beat the managed funds. I give it away for free. You just got to pay the shipping and it's yours. 语法解析
25:20
There's so much awesome information in that that will help you understand how to make more money out of the stock market and avoid the risk and avoid exactly what you're wanting to avoid. Whereas what people do is we see with this cognitive bias, they make decisions to get more of what they don't want, which is more losses. It's really interesting and that's why we call them dumb decisions. Again, I'm not saying people are dumb, but smart people can make some dumb decisions. 语法解析
25:48
but as i said it shows up in all sorts of places and all sorts of decisions we make and 语法解析
25:54
because you might miss a really good decision or a really good investment decision just because you're focusing on what you could lose rather than what you can gain. Now, also focusing totally on gain is also not necessarily great either because we see some people that, like we saw with the Bitcoin, they think, oh, I'm 10x, 10x, I can get 10x, 100x my money. And they think about that. They have that gambling mentality. That's also bad and it's also a cognitive bias we need to be aware of. So there are extremes I'm talking about. 语法解析
26:24
But to me, you do need to look at that. Another one I've probably talked about a little bit, and it's what becomes under the realms of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which Janine and I did a video for Talking Wealth, actually not the podcast, our membership, talkingwealth.com. If you go there, you can join. There's a video Janine and I are talking about the Dunning-Kruger effect. But the bias, this is overconfidence. Now, this bias… 语法解析
26:53
um makes us think we're smarter than we are and as it really is something i see this overconfidence buy-ins all the time when i ask people to rate themselves in their knowledge of the stock market and or trading etc the vast majority believe we're smarter faster better 语法解析
27:13
or we're above average because we don't like being average, do we? And we especially don't like being below average or feeling like we're below average. We always like to think we know more and we're better than us guys. 语法解析
27:26
Even though we might be overweight, we still think we look sexy. I don't know, there's a bias too, isn't it? Like our beer belly or our dad bod is more sexy and slimmer than it actually is. And then we see ourselves in a photo and we go, throw that photo away and stop laughing at us, okay? But you get the point. We have that overconfidence bias. And 语法解析
27:51
I mean, realistically, we can't all be above average, can we? But this bias really does lead to bad calls, like ignoring what an expert's talking about. And Janine and I have got frustrated about this all the time. For 20-something years, like nearly two and a half decades, Janine and I have been saying to people, don't dollar cost average, don't do this, don't do that. Here's what you should be doing. And then people doing exactly the opposite and then emailing us going, I know you said not to do that, but I did it. 语法解析
28:21
And we go, why? Why don't you just take on the advice of an expert and just do what? 语法解析
28:26
They tell you to do. But you need to understand what that expert is saying, not just take their advice. And if somebody, a real expert, somebody in a baseball cap backwards on their head in their bedroom with a T-shirt on, he's not a financial guru. We know that. But we see people watching these YouTube videos from people who aren't financial gurus taking their advice on the stock market and investing as gospel. And that's why I think it's 语法解析
28:52
cracking down on these sorts of people. So be careful who you listen to and who you watch. But bottom line is one thing that Janine and I have always said is do your own research and learn. And even in my book, in our courses, the first things I say is don't believe what I'm telling you. 语法解析
29:10
Go and research it. Go and play with it. Go and test it. And if it works, keep using it. If it doesn't work, don't use it. It's simple. And why I want you to do that is I want you to prove to yourself that it works, not just believe what I'm talking about actually works. And it's the same here. Have a look at it. If you… 语法解析
29:27
Have that overconfidence bias that you think this is something for the guys more so than the girls. And it is, as I said, when I talk to some guys, I go, on a scale of one to 10, where do you think you are as a trader in knowledge and skill? And they'll go, oh, I'm a seven or eight. I go, so why are we talking then if you're a seven or eight? 语法解析
29:48
Hey, podcasters. Obviously, you're listening to this podcast because you want to be more successful in life. So doesn't it make sense to surround yourself with people who can help you get there? Take the free seven-day trial to discover how Talking Wealth TV can change your life today. 语法解析
30:08
And it shuts them up a little bit because they go, what? And I go, well, no, you validate to me why you think you're a seven and an eight because you're talking to me about looking at our courses. But if you're a seven and an eight, why do you need our courses? If you get the point. 语法解析
30:23
So they might think they're a 7 or 8 based on them comparing themselves to an absolute beginner or a friend of theirs, but when they're standing next to Janine or Phil and myself, are they a 7 or 8 or are they a 1 or a 2 or are they a 5 or a 6? Where are they on that scale? Or are they a 10 compared to Janine, Phil and I? They're the things, and again, it's overconfidence. 语法解析
30:45
is actually quite dangerous because we see it and we see people think, that's all right, I'm a solicitor. I can handle trading Bitcoin or spec stocks or whatever else, or I'm a doctor. And I think because they've got this degree that they're not going to get caught. And interestingly, over my 30, 40 something years in the financial services industry dealing with people, I found people with the most amount of education actually are easier to fool because they think they're too smart to fool. 语法解析
31:11
And I'm not talking about me fooling them. I'm talking about they've got into scams, tax scams. They've got into, you name it, they've got into it. And they thought they were too smart for it. Whereas the people with the least amount of money actually made better decisions financially. And I've often said that people on lower average income levels have much a higher propensity to build wealth than those on the higher income. And you've probably heard of podcasts. 语法解析
31:37
If you've been listening long enough, you would have heard a podcast of me talking about that. But again, this overconfidence bias really does lead to bad calls because it does lead you to ignore expert advice. It also leads you to ignore doing any research or looking beyond what you might need to and having a deep dive into anything because you're not prepared to spend the time because you go, eh, that's pretty simple. I know what to do. I'm just going to go and do it. 语法解析
32:03
Now, don't get me wrong, confidence, having confidence is great, especially as a trader, but you can't have blind confidence, you know. You can't just go, yeah, and when you look at Janine, Phil and I and Pedro and our team here, 语法解析
32:19
We're always checking ourselves all the time. We're not just believing we know the answers. We go back and check on it. And we need to have reality checks. And sometimes, and I know your partner is often a really good person to get a reality check to tell you whether you really are that good or not. But those people that do have that overconfidence bias quite often won't listen to their partner either. And it may be a good time for you to do that if you believe you have an overconfidence bias. 语法解析
32:47
Another strong one I want to talk about here is anchors. When we see something, it can anchor in to us. And I'll explain it in terms of, for example, let's go to a used car dealer or a car dealer or even a shop, but let's just stick with the car for a second. So we go into the car, new car, used car, doesn't make any difference. And you see the price sticker on the car. And let's say it says, you know, 语法解析
33:18
$45,000 for this vehicle. And then the salesperson walks up and it's like, for you, today, it's only $40,000. Now you go, wow, I got five grand off. That's over 10%. But the car might be worth $35,000, not $45,000. 语法解析
33:42
and it happens all the time is is you see it all the time in retail where if they're going to have a special they often put the price up and you see them they go recommended retail price or msrp or manufacturers recommended retail price or whatever the that is they don't sell it at that price most of the time but they work their discount 语法解析
34:03
on the recommended retail price. So let's say it could be a sweater or a pair of jeans or something, and then normally the manufacturer's recommended retail price is $100. Quite often they'll be selling it for $80 or $90, but when they might have a sale, they'll say the recommended retail price is $100. You're getting it for $70, so you got 30% off, and you go, great. 语法解析
34:25
But that's the price you normally pay. We're pretty close to it. And I don't know how many times are these end of year sales and their Black Friday sales and that off-scene stuff. And I went, I wouldn't buy that on a normal day at that price. Why would I buy it today? But this is what we call an anchor or an anchoring bias is because that number sticks in our head and we think, oh, we're getting that discount. 语法解析
34:48
And you really do think you might be getting a deal. And it happens in the stock market too where you think, oh, that stock used to be $100 or it's $50. Now it's $35. It's cheap, so I'll buy that. But really, is it cheap at $35? Is it worth $35? Because it could still be overpriced at $35. It could be only valued at $20 and it keeps falling. But our brain's saying it used to be this and now it's this. 语法解析
35:16
Because this anchoring that we see sets the tone. And once you've got that number or that thing in your head, it's really, really tough to get out of it. You know, we see it all the time in whether it's a sale at a shop or whatever else, or if it's 语法解析
35:33
some sort of other negotiation or whatever that is, but we need to be sure we're not being controlled by that anchoring bias. And often I'll pick something up and I'll look at it and go, yep, I still wouldn't pay that price for it. Like $50 for a t-shirt. I'm like, really? You know, just because it's got Gucci or something on it and it's $100. And I was like, why? 语法解析
35:52
you know it's the sometimes i find those brand names they've got these you know the prices are on them the big prizes are on them and you feel the material in life you can get something it came up that's a better quality for about a tenth of the price so is it about quality or just having the name on your shirt um and you know i've got some designer shirts and stuff like that i'm saying i haven't done that because it's nice to feel like you can afford that 语法解析
36:19
type of product. But really that was my cognitive bias. I'm thinking, oh yeah, I'll have some this and I'll have that. I'll have the brand name sneakers or whatever else. But really, are they better? Not necessarily. So we all get caught in that. But the thing is, we want to talk about also another one we talk about is called present bias. 语法解析
36:40
And this is a real big one that we see really regularly as well. Because why do we keep choosing to do something over something else that's better for our future? Why do we spend so much time in front of TVs and on our devices, phones, tablets, etc., rather than doing something for our future? 语法解析
36:58
And it's because we like that instant gratification because our brains really do crave that short-term hit, those endorphins that hit when we're playing games or whatever that is. More so than for long-term gains because we think, oh, geez, it's going to take me 12 months to do your deployment course. I'd rather just watch a video for five minutes to teach me how to trade the stock market. Now, which one's going to teach you to be a better trader? 语法解析
37:28
Obviously the course, not the video. But we do crave that short-term hit all the time. We see it on YouTube, we see it with social media, we see it a whole lot. And that's why people sometimes binge listen. I don't know how many times I've had somebody say they binge listen to these podcasts, but we'll binge watch, what is it? Some of those big TV shows that you see. I can't remember some of them off the top of my head, but they sit down and watch the whole series in a night. 语法解析
37:57
you know, rather than do something that might be more productive for them. So we do that and they go, I'll do that tomorrow, I'll do whatever, I'll get to the gym tomorrow, save money tomorrow, I'll do X tomorrow for my future. 语法解析
38:11
Nothing stops procrastination, does it? And where is procrastination coming from when we're saying that having that instant gratification is that fear of failure, fear of whatever, but it is there. And it's not that we're lazy because if there's something we want to do, we just get up and do it. 语法解析
38:29
But what we're finding is, or what I find is really present, is people are just wired for now other than doing the work. And again, I'll go back to, you know, COVID, you know, the voice vote, the elections, et cetera. People just go, yeah, okay, the media said vote yes. You know, oh, okay, whatever. 语法解析
38:50
Oh, COVID, the doctor said take a jab. Okay, do that. And, oh, okay, I'll just vote for whoever I voted for last time. And to me, that's not good enough. And that's just my belief. It may not be yours. I just think that whatever's presented to you, and especially big decisions about what do you do with your health and what do you do for a country and what do you do, obviously, for a government, you know, it's important. And I think Australians en masse have this apathetic attitude 语法解析
39:20
towards elections and that. Yes, it's compulsory and maybe that's part of the reason why there's an apathetic attitude. They go, well, I just have to vote, so I'll just walk in and write Mickey Mouse on my voting form. But really, is that the right way to go? If you're not happy with the way the situation is in the country or in your suburb, in your state, then make a change. And you can't make a change 语法解析
39:45
by voting for the same people that got you to where you are and to me that's the danger that we take by not actually be thinking into that future and having a present bias oh it's okay today the devil i know is better than the devil i don't know what's going to happen but we have to make it happen and the politicians should be doing what we're asking them to do not what they want to do and you know quite frankly i think career politicians have had their day long and truly 语法解析
40:12
a long, long time ago. And as I said, I don't think red and blue have earned my vote. So I don't care. Labor and Liberal haven't earned my vote. So I won't be voting for either of those parties at this present time. I don't know who I'm going to vote for because I've got to continue my research. But shouldn't we do that rather than just do what's easy for us? Because again, we're not lazy. But what's important, really what is important to you as a person 语法解析
40:42
What is valuable to you in terms of your family, your future, your family's future, the environment you want the children to grow up in, how you want people to perceive you, your family, your country, your state. And surely that's important stuff. But if we procrastinate and go, I'll do it later, or that's somebody else's problem, I'll let them decide, then are we really doing what we need to do? 语法解析
41:12
And to me, these cognitive biases that we have, we really do need to challenge them and teach our kids to challenge. And I'm not talking about being disrespectful. I'm talking about challenge the accepted norms. 语法解析
41:26
you know, like I mentioned earlier, dollar cost averaging, all sorts of, you know, and people talking about buy and hold. Buy and hold is not a solid investment strategy that will make you wealthy, just not. And every which way you slice and dice it, but if somebody is in front of me who is an advocate of buy and hold, there is no way known I'm going to empty their cup because of their cognitive biases. All I'm asking you, if you do have cognitive biases, like I've discussed, is maybe you ask yourself, well, 语法解析
41:56
What if I go and have a look at the other side? What if I put my bias aside and have a look at what the other side is saying with an open mind and see what happens? Wouldn't we be a much better society if we understood the other side rather than being conflict with them, which we're seeing so often on our streets with protests, et cetera, you know, and one side pitting themselves against the other side rather than understanding the other side. 语法解析
42:28
I'm not saying switch teams, but you might want to. Or you might want to adjust the rhetoric that you have or the way you discuss it with your family and friends, et cetera. But I think asking questions, asking why and doing some detailed research and getting actual facts, just not believing anything 语法解析
42:46
one side over another one because you know climate change not climate change global warming not global warming there's a bit that's been going on for 25 30 years so and you still got these two polar opposites but is the answer in the middle somewhere maybe i'm not going to get into that one either 语法解析
43:04
But please, just look at your biases and look at how that cognitive biases that you might have may be holding you back from achieving what you want. And if that's one of our courses or buying my book or getting exercise or eating paleo or whatever that is, 语法解析
43:20
Who's going to benefit? And the answer is you will benefit. You'll have a better lifestyle. Because as I said, we all run on these cognitive biases. I'll just wrap it up briefly by saying, going over again, we've got confirmation bias, remember? Loss aversion, overconfidence, anchoring, 语法解析
43:38
And the last one I talked about was present bias. So those are the five ones. And you might want to listen to this over again. But also, maybe you might want to research a little bit. Because to me, everything's about attitude. If you have the right attitude, anything in life is possible for you. But if we don't ask the question why and explore… 语法解析
43:58
what is our attitude then? And to me, always be open to looking at new things. And I was saying to somebody not long ago, there's money and opportunity flying past our eyes at light speed all day long, every single day. And there's opportunities to make money. If you don't have money, there's an opportunity to make money somewhere immediately. And you can do that. And again, some people might have a cognitive bias against me saying that, going, oh, it's too hard today, Dale. 语法解析
44:27
We can't do this for whatever reason. I don't believe that. To me, there's so many opportunities if you open your mind to receiving them. And all too often, we're closed off to the opportunities that present to us. And again, I see this all the time with people when they're presented with the opportunity to undertake our cause that we know will make them infinitely more wealthy throughout their life. 语法解析
44:53
and give them much more peace of mind, confidence, and a list of benefits just goes on and on and on. But they let their cognitive biases and fears, loss aversion, overconfidence, anchoring, all those things, and present bias where I just want to be rich now, all of that stops them from enrolling in one of our courses. So hopefully I've helped you think a little bit. Maybe I've challenged you a little bit. Maybe I've challenged you a lot. And what I'm talking about today has not meant to be 语法解析
45:20
any way confrontational, if that makes sense. I'm just opening a discussion and discussion, healthy discussion is good, but have a healthy discussion. Both people need to be open to what the other side is saying. And if you're not, then you have a cognitive bias and then 语法解析
45:38
maybe you might want to look at that. Again, check out our website, wealthwithin.com.au. If you're looking at our courses, or you're interested in being a better investor trader in the stock market, check it out. There's an education tab on our homepage, wealthwithin.com.au. Check out our YouTube channel, Wealth Within TV, and also check out talkingwealth.com. 语法解析
45:58
We have lots of videos with lots and lots of experts that you can watch on that. But hopefully, if you enjoyed this podcast, you've been listening to Talking Wealth. I'm Dale Gillum, the Chief Analyst here at Wealth Within. Take care. Have a great week. Thanks for listening to our Talking Wealth podcast. For more exclusive content covering topics like the stock market, real estate, business, performance, and psychology, and more, check out talkingwealth.com today. 语法解析
Edit:2025.04.29
